El Niño Weakening; Forecasters Now Predicting La Niña for Next Year
UNITED STATES - This year’s near-record El Niño conditions may be coming to a close, federal climate scientists say.
El Niño conditions probably peaked in December, Huug van den Dool, Seasonal Forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told reporters in a Thursday conference call. Now, forecasters are seeing that conditions may turn into its exact weather opposite, La Niña, by late summer or early fall, says news source KQED.
While El Niño brings warmer sea surface temperatures, La Niña cools them down, meaning whereas El Niño conditions tend to cause wet winters in California, its sister La Niña tends to bring the dry and potentially drought conditions.
“We are reasonably confident that there will be a La Niña, but plead ignorance as to whether this is going to be a small, moderate, or strong La Niña,” Huug van den Dool told Gizmodo.
While its too early to tell when La Niña will be here and how strong it may be, van den Dool noted that the 1997-98 El Niño, which many forecasters are comparing this season’s El Nino to as far as strength, was followed by an almost equally strong La Niña. As of now, NOAA says there is a 50 percent chance that La Niña could show by the end of summer, and if not by then, the chances of it arriving in the winter surge up to 80 percent.
As we’ve reported previously, the Sierra snowpack, which provides about a third of the state’s water supply, was upwards of 130% of normal as of the beginning of February. As of now, snowpack is residing at between 90% to 98% of normal, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
For more on the predicted switch from El Niño to La Niña, stay tuned to AndNowUKnow.
