TORONTO, CANADA - Blueberries are a fascinating product with a rich history. A history that stretches back to ancient times and gets more interesting as we get closer to modern times.

Wild, lowbush varieties have been enjoyed by indigenous North American cultures for thousands of years, while the highbush varieties we are more familiar with, have only been around for the last hundred years or so. And while for most of the last hundred years, blueberries have mostly played second fiddle to strawberries, their outlook changed in the early nineties when research into antioxidants gave blueberries a shot in the arm.

From that point, demand skyrocketed, prompting increased production from existing growing regions and the opportunity for new areas to get into the game, all in an effort to satisfy a seemingly insatiable demand. Now, here we are on the cusp of 2023, and it appears that demand has been satiated or at minimum, the significant growth in supply has outpaced the impressive growth in demand.

That little history lesson was necessary to understand why blueberries have experienced an average deflation of 5.25 percent during December and January over the last ten years. Simply put, it would appear as if a significant reaction to an uptick in demand has resulted in numerous growing regions competing for the same business. The benefactor? The produce buying public who have been able to get their winter blueberries at progressively lower prices over the last decade.

This is the perfect scenario to involve Produce Moneyball. What’s most interesting about the accompanying graph is that 2021 seemed to buck the trend of the last decade experiencing 12 x 6 oz blueberry cost increases, including most notably as the season progressed.

This was partially a result of the collapse in container availability toward the end of 2021. This year, Produce Moneyball predicts that business will get back to normal, and blueberries will repeat the history of declining FOB costs, remaining in the low teens for 12 x 6 oz containers and declining as the season progresses.

While produce history can be fun, once in a while, stay tuned to Produce Moneyball to learn more about produce’s future.

Mike Mauti, Managing Partner, Execulytics Consulting

Leading the Execulytics team, Mike brings more than 20 years of experience as a leader in the fresh foods industry. Over this time, Mike has gained expertise in retail operations, procurement, and merchandising. Specific skills around grocery retailing, particularly in produce buying and selling, make Mike a valuable partner for suppliers and independent retailers alike.

Execulytics