WASHINGTON, DC - A leading authority and voice for the retail industry, the National Retail Federation (NRF) has analyzed economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as the Monthly Economic Review. If you’re wondering what to expect from the retail market this holiday season, you’re on the right page.

“The economic data calendar was quite busy at the end of October, but while there were contradictions and mixed signals, we continue to believe the United States economy remains in a good place,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF Chief Economist in the November issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review. “Most importantly, the new data doesn’t change our 2024 holiday forecast or retail sales projections for the year.”

The forecasted retail sales during the November–December holiday season would increase between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023 to a total of between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, shared the report, adding that the economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum.

“Putting all these considerations together, this holiday season looks very good,” Kleinhenz added. “Households are starting the season in decent financial shape and are managing the constraints of their paychecks, with growth in wages and salaries still supportive of a steady pace of spending. The economy remains on solid footing and is growing faster than many expected.”

Government data has shown the economy gained 12,000 jobs during October and that the annual pace of gross domestic product growth had slowed to 2.8 percent in the third quarter from 3 percent in the second quarter. Kleinhenz reported that the drop in job numbers was caused by the temporary impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with major labor union strikes, and that employment had still gained 104,000 jobs on a three-month average.

“I am optimistic about the pace of economic activity in the final quarter of the year,” concluded Kleinhenz. “Given third-quarter spending performance and comprehensive upward revisions in late September for income, spending, and the savings rate, I have increased confidence in the economy’s strength and the near-term outlook.”

The report noted that with household balance sheets bolstered by a strong stock market and rising home values along with income, the outlook remains positive overall.

To read the entire report, click here.

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