NOAA Reports El Niño Impacts Will Peak for West Between January and February 2016



NOAA Reports El Niño Impacts Will Peak for West Between January and February 2016



CALIFORNIA - Hold tight California, the wet weather (be it rain or snow) that’s been seen the last several weeks is reportedly just the beginning.

The NOAA reports that El Niño will peak sometime in January-February of 2016, which means high tide events and a probability of higher-than-normal flooding for the West Coast.

While the report did not address what this could mean for other areas as far as precipitation, previous El Niños suggest even more stormy weather and (hopefully) building the snow pack and adding more runoff to help drought-stricken areas.

After the peak, the pattern looks to decrease throughout the spring, as shown in the graph below:

Graph showing El Niño strength from November, 2015 through July, 2015.

In addition to wetter-than-normal weather, El Niño also plays a part in higher tides on the West Coast, but there are other influencers.

Besides the El Niño pattern, other factors that climate scientists say are contributing to California's unusually high tides that are and will continue to occur include:

  • Daily high and low tides occuring twice per day, with one high tide higher than the other and one low tide lower than the other.
  • Perigean spring tides (King Tides) which occur six to seven times a year, when a new or full moon coincides closely in time with the perigee of the moon.
  • Storm Surge (the abnormal rise in water level caused by a storm) over and above the predicted tide, which can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when coinciding with high tide.

Because of these, the NOAA warns Californians living on the coast, as well as those that may transport to or through those areas, to be prepared for more flooding than usual in low-lying areas during El Niño’s peak between January and February of 2016.

Sea surface temperatures as of December 20, 2015.

As we have reported previously, El Niño is the warming of a certain patch of the central Pacific that changes weather patterns worldwide. This has been associated with flooding in some places, droughts elsewhere, a generally warmer globe, and fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

AndNowUKnow will continue to report to the industry any and all weather patterns that could affect the production and transit of fresh produce.