Port Surges Begin to Calm as Imports Drop Below 2M TEU; Jonathan Gold and Ben Hackett Comment
WASHINGTON, DC - The Global Port Tracker report recently released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates shows an improvement in port congestion that was caused by the pandemic. Monthly import cargo volume at the United States’ major container ports has reportedly fallen below the 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) mark, and should remain there through most of spring 2023.
“Ports have been stretched to their limits and beyond but are getting a break as consumer demand moderates amid continued inflation and high interest rates,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Consumers are still spending and volumes remain high, but we’re not seeing the congestion at the docks and ships waiting to unload that were widespread this time a year ago. It’s good to escape some of the pressure, but it’s important to use this time to address supply chain challenges that still need to be resolved like finalizing the West Coast port labor contract.”
Imports reduced dramatically to a four-year low of 1.37 million TEU in March 2020 as COVID-19 prompted the temporary shutdown of much of the nation’s economy. Cargo levels later soared after the shutdowns ended and pent-up consumer demand was unleashed, topping 2 million TEU by August and staying there all but one month until winter 2022.
According to a press release, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.78 million TEU this November. That was a decline of 11.3 percent from October and 15.8 percent from November 2021. Global Port Tracker projected the month of December at 1.88 million TEU, down 10.1 percent year over year. Despite the slowdown in cargo, retail sales are on track to meet NRF’s forecast of growth over 2021 for both the full year and the holiday season when December’s sales numbers are released next week. January is forecast at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.5 percent year over year.
“After nearly three years of COVID-19’s impact on global trade and consumer demand, import patterns appear to be returning to what was normal prior to 2020,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Nonetheless, as inflation eases and consumer spending returns, we project that growth will slowly return going into the second half of the year.”
For more from NRF, read the press release here.
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