WASHINGTON - The following release issued from the National Retail Federation was issued on April 9, 2025, before President Trump announced a pause on tariffs for trading partners outside of China. The effects on import cargo may change with this new announcement.

Direct from the National Retail Federation:

With sweeping tariffs now imposed on all U.S. trading partners, import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to drop dramatically beginning next month, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are taxes on U.S importers ultimately paid by consumers. They are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other. At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”

Following tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico announced earlier this year, President Donald Trump last week set a minimum tariff of 10% on all U.S. trading partners and “reciprocal” tariffs as high as 50% on dozens of nations. China has since announced tariffs on U.S. goods, prompting Trump to announce additional tariffs on China, bringing the base rate to 104% just for the national emergency tariffs. The rate goes even higher when the base tariff rate and earlier Section 301 tariffs are added in.

As a result, imports during the second half of 2025 are now expected to be down at least 20% year over year, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. Even balanced against elevated levels earlier this year, that could bring total 2025 cargo volume to a net decline of 15% or more unless the situation changes.

“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett said. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.06 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in February, although the Ports of New York and New Jersey have yet to report final data. That was down 7.5% from January but up 5.2% year over year. It was the busiest February in three years even through the month is traditionally the slowest of the year because of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China.

Ports have not yet reported March’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.14 million TEU, up 11.1% year over year. April – which includes cargo shipped before the new tariffs were announced – is forecast at 2.08 million TEU, up 3.1% year over year. But May is expected to end 19 consecutive months of year-over-year growth, dropping sharply to 1.66 million TEU, down 20.5% from the same time last year. June is forecast at 1.57 million TEU, the lowest volume since February 2023 and a 26.6% drop year over year. July is forecast at 1.69 million TEU, down 27% year over year, and August at 1.7 million TEU, down 26.8%.

Before the latest round of tariffs was announced, April was forecast at 2.13 million TEU, up 5.7% year over year; May at 2.14 million TEU, up 2.8%; June at 2.07 million TEU, down 3.2%, and July at 1.99 million TEU, down 13.9%.

The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to 11.73 million TEU, down 2.9% year over year rather than the total of 12.78 million TEU, up 5.7% year over year, that was forecast before the tariffs announcement.

Imports have been elevated since last summer, first as retailers brought in cargo ahead of an October strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports and then in anticipation of an escalation of tariffs after the November elections. Imports during 2024 totaled 25.5 million TEU, up 14.7% from 2023 and the highest since 2021’s record 25.8 million TEU during the pandemic.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.