TORONTO, ONTARIO, CANADA - There is something special about a Navel orange. Maybe it’s all about the sweet, juicy flavor of a California Navel orange in its prime. They somehow have the unique ability to both refresh you and warm you at the same time. Or, it could be more about the vitamin C burst you get when eating them.

Everyone has the odd sniffle from time to time, but do you ever notice the people who sit quietly at their desk peeling an orange when everyone grabs a sweet treat or their favorite caffeinated beverage tend to sniffle a lot less? It could be either one of these two undeniable benefits that make Navel oranges one of the most consistently sold fruits in the produce department. But for me, I attribute it to nostalgia.

More than most other fruits, I often hear stories from old timers that revolve around oranges. Whether being touted by ‘civilians’ as the best gift received in their Christmas stocking during a bygone era or from industry folk reminiscing about the seasonal flip of a store’s front tables back to citrus, headlined, of course, by the noble Navel orange.

Then there are those iconic black and white images of produce receivers unloading orange crates at the rail dock, the crates being recognizable by the sometimes zany, sometimes traditional, but always cool graphics. Yes, there is something special indeed about Navel oranges.

For Produce Moneyball, nothing brings on nostalgia more than reviewing FOB cost histories. And when reviewing those costs for 48 count Navel oranges during the first eight weeks of the year, increasing costs become immediately evident. In fact, inflation measures at 3.7 percent per year, accentuated by a big jump in 2022. (What didn’t experience a big jump in 2022?)

While inflation will still rule this year’s prediction, Produce Moneyball anticipates a continuation of the trend of the previous nine years and predicts a small pullback from last season’s anomalous highs. Expect costs to be in the low $20s to start and slowly drop as the winter progresses.

Continue turning to Produce Moneyball anytime you feel nostalgic about historic produce costs.

Mike Mauti, Managing Partner, Execulytics Consulting

Leading the Execulytics team, Mike brings more than 20 years of experience as a leader in the fresh foods industry. Over this time, Mike has gained expertise in retail operations, procurement, and merchandising. Specific skills around grocery retailing, particularly in produce buying and selling, make Mike a valuable partner for suppliers and independent retailers alike.

Execulytics